We expect the growth in prices, sales levels, and housing starts to moderate from recent highs, but remain elevated in 2022. Robust GDP growth, higher employment and net migration will support demand.
In 2023 and 2024, the growth in prices will moderate with sales and starts activity remaining above long-run averages. Homeownership affordability will decline, with the growth in prices expected to outpace income growth. Rental affordability is also set to decline from increasing rental demand and low stocks of rental housing.
The growth in prices will likely continue to be led by markets with already low listings, including Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa.
Supply constraints on construction will continue to impact major centres and especially Vancouver and Toronto, highlighting the central role of housing supply in determining affordability.
Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia will likely see the strongest price gains in 2022. This will largely reflect tighter supply constraints than in the rest of Canada. The growth in prices in these provinces is expected to slow by the end of 2024
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